Alpha Strike basic tactics – survival, hit chances and the role of the mech classes

At first glance, BattleTech Alpha Strike is a quick, beginner-friendly set of rules – but anyone who thinks there is no tactical depth in it is very much mistaken. Even the basics of hit probabilities and the question of how long a mech survives in battle often make the difference between victory and defeat.

In this first part on basic tactics, we take a look at the mechanics that determine everything: the 2D6 bell curve.

The 2D6 bell curve – why hit chances are so important

In Alpha Strike, almost everything is decided with two six-sided dice. This creates a bell curve – medium results are more likely than extreme rolls. This means that small changes to the hit modifiers have a huge impact. This must be taken into account in the basic tactics.

A few figures as a reminder:

Even an additional +1 modifier sometimes halves the chance of being hit. This is exactly where the Target Movement Modifier (TMM) comes into play.

Survival: Armor vs. evasion

Each mech survives battles in its own way:

• Heavy & Assault mechs (e.g. Goliath, Daishi): They rely on thick armor and structure points. They almost always get hit – but they can take a hell of a lot.
• Medium mechs (e.g. Shadow Hawk): The “middle ground” – solid armor, but also enough movement to avoid getting hit.
• Light mechs (e.g. Cicada, Locust): They survive thanks to their speed and high TMM values. However, if they are hit, they are usually quickly destroyed.

Example:

A Shadow Hawk SHD-2H with TMM 3 (by jumping) is shot at by an enemy skill 4 pilot at medium range with 4 damage:

Determination of hit roll according to SATOR: Skill level (+4) + Movement (+0) + TMM (+3) + Medium range (+2) = 9

• The opponent needs a 9 to hit → only 28% chance.
• Average damage per round: 1.12 (probability of hitting 28% multiplied by 4 damage points)
• The Shadow Hawk survives almost 10 rounds at medium range! (Structure plus armor = 10 divided by average damage)

In comparison, a Goliath with 8 armor and 6 structure but TMM 1:

• Chance of the opponent being hit: 58%.
  • Determination of hit roll according to SATOR: Skill level (+4) + Movement (+0) + TMM (+1) + Medium range (+2) = 7
• Average damage: 2.32 per round. (58% x 4 )
• Result: The Goliath survives about 6 rounds – significantly less than the agile Shadow Hawk, despite its thick armor. The poorer TMM value has a massive impact here

When the opponent shoots better

The whole thing also changes if the opponent has a high pilot skill. The higher skill massively increases the probability of being hit.

• Against a skill 2 pilot, a Cicada with TMM 3 is out after just 2 to 3 rounds.
  • Determination of hit roll according to SATOR: Skill level (+2) + Movement (+0) + TMM (+3) + Medium range (+2) = 7
  • Average damage per round: 2.32 (probability of hitting 58% multiplied by 4 damage points)
  • Failure = structure plus armor = 5 divided by average damage
• The Shadow Hawk also only lasts around 5 rounds.
• The Goliath loses its toughness and falls much faster than against average opponents. (Already in the fourth round)
  • Determination of hit roll according to SATOR: Skill level (+2) + Movement (+0) + TMM (+1) + Medium range (+2) = 5
  • Average damage per round: 3.33 (probability of hitting 83.33% multiplied by 4 damage points)
  • Failure = structure plus armor = 14 divided by average damage 3.33 = approx. 4

This shows: Armor is constant. TMM only works as long as the opponent does not hit too well. If the opponent hits well, the average damage per round increases massively. Good pilot skill, standing still (TMM = 0) or low TMM of the target have massive effects! It is therefore essential to take this into account in basic tactics.

The role of mech classes in practice

• Light mechs: Ideal against inexperienced opponents or militia. They are difficult to hit as long as the opponents have skill 4-5. But beware of aces with skill 2 – their advantage fizzles out.
• Medium mechs: Often surprisingly tough. They can play defensively (jump, seek cover) as well as use armor in an emergency.
• Heavy Mechs: They can afford to stand still and take the +1 bonus to hit – this hardly reduces their own risk.
• Assault mechs: “Long runners” – they eat hits but remain stationary. With Skill 1 or Skill 2 pilots, they become real monsters, as they are almost guaranteed to hit.

Prime example: The Mad Cat Prime A

The Mad Cat A (Timber Wolf) is the perfect hybrid:

• 8 Armor, 4 Structure
• TMM 2 without jumping
• 7 Damage (short and medium range)

It is hard to crack, deals heavy blows and retains its precision. This is exactly what makes it one of the most notorious units in Alpha Strike.

Conclusion on basic tactics

The basics of Alpha Strike always revolve around two questions:

1. How hard am I to hit?
2. How many hits will I survive if I get hit?

Light and medium mechs live from the luck of the dice and their TMM – ideal against weaker opponents. It is therefore advisable to always move light and medium mechs so that their TMM is not reduced.
Heavy mechs and assaults, on the other hand, rely on safe armor and benefit from strong pilots. Here you can also stand still to increase your own chances of being hit. The reduced TMM is less important.

If you understand these differences, you can use the basic mechanics to build targeted lists and gain decisive advantages in the game.